“If the U.S. were to get involved in any kind of war with China, it would most likely be over Taiwan,” Wiegand told FreightWaves in an interview. “But at the same time, there is a possibility of an accident or some kind of crisis happening in the South China Sea. For example, if a U.S. vessel has a collision with a Chinese naval vessel or there’s a missile shot at a U.S. destroyer ship or frigate, that would certainly lead to some kind of crisis that might escalate. Nobody wants a war, obviously, including China, but they definitely want the South China Sea, and there’s a possibility that the war might happen.”

The 1.3 million-square-mile sea in the Western Pacific Ocean contains some of the busiest trade routes in the world.

The South China Sea stretches from Singapore and the Strait of Malacca in the southwest to the Strait of Taiwan in the northeast and sits between China, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Brunei, Cambodia and Malaysia.

Researchers at Duke University calculated that total trade through both the South China Sea and the East China Sea — which lies between China, North and South Korea, and Japan, is worth $7.4 trillion per year.

The South China Sea’s share of global seaborne trade volume per commodity in 2023 included crude oil (45%), propane (42%), cars (26%) and dry bulk (23%).

Exports from China to both the U.S. and Mexico have shown strong growth the past five years. The trade route for goods from China to North America passes either through the South China or the East China Sea.

The South China Sea may also hold valuable undiscovered resources, such as oil and natural gas, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

In 2023, the U.S. Geological Survey reported the South China Sea may contain up to 9.2 billion barrels of untapped petroleum and other liquids, and up to 216 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, according to a recent EIA report.

China’s disputes in the South China Sea include territories that fall within a country’s economic exclusion zones (EEZ), such as the Philippines. An EEZ is a maritime area where a coastal state has the right to explore, exploit, conserve and manage natural resources, according to the United Nations.

In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines in a case opened in 2013 against China. The court of arbitration said China’s claims in the South China Sea had no legal basis.

Wiegand said the Permanent Court of Arbitration and other international organizations made it clear that China did not have any solid claims to owning all of the South China Sea.

“There are some historic claims that may have legitimacy, but at the same time, the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea, which China signed and ratified, along with most other countries in the world, with the exception of the U.S. and a few others, is very clear about the maritime boundaries of countries,” Wiegand said. “China’s claims or maritime features about islands in the waters of countries like Vietnam and the Philippines that fall under their control … those are completely illegitimate.”

Hasim Turker, an international security expert based in Istanbul, said if the U.S. gets drawn into the South China Sea conflict, it will most likely be through its treaty with the Philippines or to help Taiwan or other nations.