t needs to address challenges around commercial profitability and mounting debt.
The warnings came ahead of the next five-year plan, covering the years 2026-2030, in which policymakers will decide whether to take on more debt to expand the 48,000-kilometre network – already the world’s largest, surpassing the combined lengths of those in Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom.

On one hand, Beijing has succeeded in building the network at a breakneck pace, while maintaining safety and achieving record travel speeds. Recently tested maglev trains have topped 600km/h, and a new generation of bullet trains capable of 400km/h could cut travel time between Beijing and Shanghai – China’s two main cities – by more than one hour, reducing the four-hour journey to three.

But some analysts have urged officials to hit the brakes.

“Many newly built HSR lines should not have been built, if assessed according to the standards set by the central government,” said Zhao Jian, a professor at Beijing Jiaotong University.

As a manufacturing powerhouse, China needs greater freight capacity – especially for bulk commodities – but high-speed rail, which typically runs at about 300km/h, is limited to carrying passengers as the speed of travel is unsuitable for transporting heavy loads, he said.

In March 2021, the State Council issued guidelines calling for stricter assessments of new lines where parallel routes already exist. But the network continues to expand, reaching 48,000 kilometres by the end of 2024.

China State Railway Group, the main operator, has set a 50,000-kilometre target for this year despite accruing a mountain of debt since it launched construction on the network in 2008 – with levels reaching 6.2 trillion yuan (US$863 billion) by the end of 2024, according to the firm’s balance sheets.

The debt-to-asset ratio stands at 63.5 per cent, with most funding financed through bank loans and bond sales, it said.

China unveils maglev marvel, redefining the future of high-speed rail transport
Zhao Zhijiang, a researcher at the Beijing-based think tank Anbound, urged policymakers to pay greater attention to long-term financial sustainability in the next five-year plan.

“The risks associated with a debt level at such a scale cannot be ignored,” he said in a report last month.

According to the paper, huge maintenance costs – which could reach 20 per cent of the initial investment – will also be needed in the coming years.

China State Railway Group reported a profit of 3.9 billion yuan in 2024, though it did not disclose figures for many specific lines, especially those in remote regions. The Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, whose operator is listed in Shanghai, posted a net income of nearly 12.8 billion yuan last year.

However, overall profits remain modest compared to the scale of debt. In June, Lu Dadao, an economic geographer at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, estimated that only a few lines in China’s eastern coastal region were breaking even.
Despite the financial pressures, it remains unclear whether construction will be reined in. In a blueprint released five years ago, China State Railway Group set a target of about 70,000 kilometres of high-speed rail by 2035, connecting all cities with populations exceeding 500,000.

Zhao from Beijing Jiaotong University questioned whether a single enterprise should have sole authority over the development of a national transport network that relies heavily on public resources – including fiscal funds and land – unless officially mandated by the government.

At a press conference on July 21, An Lusheng, deputy director of the National Railway Administration, said the coming five-year plan would focus on improving the network, enhancing transport efficiency and lowering logistics costs.